Q1 Original Research Log

Differential Equations Course (~13.5 hours)

Much of the terminology and methods used in modeling diseases are directly related to differential equations. The compartmental models, as well as equilibrium solutions and the stability of equilibrium solutions, are all examples of terms that my Diff Eq course has discussed.

Differential Equations Progress as a 10/21/20
Sections are roughly 1 hour each, and exams are 1.5 hours each.

OR Outline (1-2 hours)

This an outline of how I intend to conduct my original research. Link: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XXhdBBZk2gQxOx9z3uOmLvK9wmsc8aJ6kynWSwVp2pI/edit.

Model Development (~5 hours)

This consisted of the process of outlining and revising the model I intend to construct, as well as a sample supply chain for visualization purposes. The end goal is to best meet the number of required swabs, specifically when there is a large jump in swab demand that only suitable inventory could combat. Once a set of solutions has been determined, I will attempt to minimize the final cost of that solution.

Sample Supply Chain
Original Model
Hospital Swab Flow Model
Required Swab Model
Available Swab Cost Model

Making Example SEIR Spreadsheet (3 hours)

I began by assembling a 52-week stochastic SEIR model, with adjustable transmission rates. I expanded it to graph the populations over time and the changes in the populations over time, and to include the R0 value. I am currently working on expanding it to include swab consumption at a rate of 2 swabs per patient. Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WuYTkd-P4u_Chw8R6CL5Rdic6Y9XkCUWV0MbPjmdPK4/edit#gid=0

SEIR(S) Model
SEIR Graph
ODE Graph

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