Yang, Yang, et al. “Coronavirus Pandemic and Tourism: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Modeling of Infectious Disease Outbreak.” Annals of Tourism Research, vol. 83, July 2020, p. 102913. PubMed, doi:10.1016/j.annals.2020.102913.
This article, while out of the scope of my project, may provide some insights into how pandemics affect economies.
They use a quarterly based dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, combined with a household utility function to consider the effect of a onetime shock (pgs 2-3). This shock had an assumed monthly likelihood (i.e. disaster risk) of 1.6%, or once every 5 years. Simulations were made for both varying risk persistence values (Fig 1.) and for health deterioration (disaster size, Fig 2) values (pg 5).