Coronavirus pandemic and tourism: Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling of infectious disease outbreak

Yang, Yang, et al. “Coronavirus Pandemic and Tourism: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Modeling of Infectious Disease Outbreak.” Annals of Tourism Research, vol. 83, July 2020, p. 102913. PubMed, doi:10.1016/j.annals.2020.102913.

This article, while out of the scope of my project, may provide some insights into how pandemics affect economies.

They use a quarterly based dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, combined with a household utility function to consider the effect of a onetime shock (pgs 2-3). This shock had an assumed monthly likelihood (i.e. disaster risk) of 1.6%, or once every 5 years. Simulations were made for both varying risk persistence values (Fig 1.) and for health deterioration (disaster size, Fig 2) values (pg 5).

Page 2

Page 3

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s